Exploring the IPCC Report — Climate Change and the SDGs
Have you ever wondered why the days in summer are so long? Or why storms or weather events have become so severe? At what rate is our world warming?
The answers to these questions can be found in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Climate change is perhaps one of the most significant threats facing our world today. As a result, the questions it has raised have led to significant scientific research around the multitude of sectors it poses a threat to [1]. Drawing on the findings of more than 6000 published articles, the IPCC report is a comprehensive assessment of the impact and future risks of climate change [2].
What is the IPCC Report?
Climate change is the shift in weather and environmental patterns due to rising temperatures and the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. The first IPCC report was created in 1990 by a United Nations body dedicated to understanding this phenomenon. Since then, the IPCC has released five further reports to communicate the progress and findings of the scientific community to policymakers, businesses, and the public [3]. In doing so, the IPCC hopes to provide insight and mitigation strategies that can guide our fight against climate change.
The most recent IPCC report was released on August 9th, 2021 [4]. The report discussed the potential damage that could result if the global temperature exceeds an increase of 1.5℃ from pre-industrial levels (since the time period 1750-1900) [5]. According to the report, there is a high risk that the global temperature will exceed the 1.5 °C threshold if we continue without any further action— the resulting consequences would be severe, impacting all aspects of our lives [6].
Perhaps, one of the most important and thought-provoking findings, however, is that human-related activities are responsible for approximately 1° C of warming (from pre-industrial temperatures). This confirms that human actions are one of the main drivers of global warming [7]. If we don’t take any immediate action, it is likely that the increase in temperature will reach above 1.5 °C between 2030 and 2052, creating irreversible damage to the Earth [7].
IPCC Report Findings & Links to SDGs
Global warming is the increase in the mean temperature of land and ocean regions globally. According to the report, global warming will have serious effects on the environment and humans no matter the rise in temperature, however, the effects experienced if warming is limited to 1.5°C will be far less than if 2°C is reached [7].
SDG 1: No Poverty
The impact of global warming on humans will also likely be tremendous, poverty will increase and have a disproportionate effect on indigenous and coastal communities. This is due to rising sea levels and more violent storms having a stronger impact on disadvantaged groups; in addition to higher food prices, income losses and population displacement [8]. However, it is these indigenous groups that the report suggests we turn to, in order to help slow our climate crisis. This is because indigenous groups have lived in harmony with nature, constantly mitigating climate risks for generations. Utilising their knowledge and understanding of the land they survive on may help us speed up our adaptations in order to quickly and effectively reduce our impact on the climate [7].
SDG 2: Zero Hunger
The report also discusses the impact of climate change on food security. Rising temperatures will cause reductions in yields of maize, rice, wheat, and potentially other cereal crops, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central and South America [7]. This is because heat stress can cause crops to grow quickly, decreasing their quality and quantity [7]. As a result, there will be a smaller supply of food to feed a rapidly growing population. This consequently puts greater demand on the use of land for crops, possibly accelerating deforestation and land irrigation — only to succeed in making the problem worse [7].
SDG 3: Good Health and Wellbeing
Sea levels and changes in weather events are perhaps the most commonly discussed consequences of global warming, but what about our health? Risks from vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue fever are projected to increase as global warming intensifies. This is in addition to the increasing number of heat and ozone-related mortalities [7]. Steps must be taken to combat climate change and ensure that the health of humans around the world will not be negatively impacted.
SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
Like previously mentioned, one major impact of global warming is rising sea levels. If global temperatures rise by 1.5°C, we can expect sea levels to increase to 0.77 m, which is 0.1m lower than if 2°C is reached [7]. As a result, up to ten million fewer people would be exposed to risks related to increased sea levels. Rising sea levels will also drive the migration of people to cities, likely causing overcrowding. It will be a challenge to ensure that cities are sustainably using resources; the share of electricity demands in buildings is expected to increase to 55–75% of total energy consumption in 2050, leading to increased pressure on the environment and natural resources for energy [9].
SDG 14: Life Below Water and 15: Life on Land
Rising temperatures will also accelerate the melting of glaciers and ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland. With 1.5°C of global warming, we are to expect one ice-free Arctic sea in summer per century. Unfortunately, this likelihood is increased to at least one per decade when global temperature is increased to 2°C [7]. This can negatively impact the species that live on the ice like polar bears, reindeer, musk fox, and snowy owls. Although animals like polar bears have survived in ice-free environments in the past, climate change may force them to move closer to humans and change their feeding habits, which can disrupt ecosystems [10]. Along with these effects, the probability of heavy precipitation, drought, and extreme weather also increases with temperature [7]. The changing conditions in the environment could disrupt ecosystems; coral reefs, for example, are predicted to decline by a further 70–90% at a global temperature of 1.5°C. This can cause a decline in the biodiversity of underwater life by harming organisms like crabs and shrimp that depend on coral reefs for shelter and protection [7].
Is it all bad news?
Although the statistics are alarming, we still have the ability and time to take the necessary steps to reverse some of the effects of climate change. The Paris Agreement aims to reduce the total emissions of greenhouse gases to 52 - 58 GtCO₂yr-¹ (gigatonnes of carbon dioxide per year)[9]. As a result of the report, this reduction will not nearly be enough to stop temperatures warming by 1.5°C. If we want to meet the new targets outlined by the paper, emissions will have to fall below 30 GtCO₂yr-¹, which is around a 50% reduction from 2010 levels. In order to do this, we will have to turn our attention to a wide range of adaptations and solutions following the modelled pathways designed to limit warming to 1.5°C.
The use of renewable energy will be important in our fight against climate change by helping us combat rising temperatures by reducing our dependence on fossil fuels and limiting the production of greenhouse gas emissions. As part of our fight to limit global warming, renewables are projected to supply 70-85% of electricity in 2050 while the share of fossil fuels will be less than 10% [7]. However, this transformation to a renewable dependent society won’t be cheap as the investment required annually is predicted to be around 2.4 trillion USD between now and 2035. Despite this seemingly large number, this only equates to 2.5% of the world’s total Gross Domestic Product (GDP), by redirecting funds towards climate-friendly initiatives limiting warming to 1.5°C [7].
Despite the extensive cost and change needed, as we aim to reduce our impact on the climate, we may be able to accelerate the progress of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Ensuring food and water security will reduce human vulnerability and improve health conditions whilst managing disaster risks will benefit not only the climate but the communities that inhabit our planet.
Overall, we need to take drastic action in order to stop the predicted damage. When the 26th UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) takes place in November 2021 we will have a clearer picture of the lengths governments are willing to take to change the currently bleak outlook for our climate. We must act now to reverse the damage our industrialised society has created.
References
[1] UN Security Council, “Climate Change ‘Biggest Threat Modern Humans Have Ever Faced’, WorldRenowned Naturalist Tells Security Council, Calls for Greater Global Cooperation,” United Nations, February 23, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.un.org/press/en/2021/sc14445.doc.htm#:~:text=Security%20Council-,Climate%20Change%20'Biggest%20Threat%20Modern%20Humans%20Have%20Ever%20Faced'%2C,Calls%20for%20Greater%20Global%20Cooperation&text=The%20poorest%20%E2%80%94%20those%20with%20the,in%20the%20most%20immediate%20danger.%E2%80%9D [Accessed 6 September 2021].
[2] Anon., “Summary for Policymakers of IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C approved by governments,” IPCC, October 8, 2018. [Online]. Available: https://www.ipcc.ch/2018/10/08/summary-for-policymakers-of-ipcc-special-report-on-global-warming-of-1-5c-approved-by-governments/. [Accessed 6 September 2021].
[3] Anon., “History of the IPCC,” IPCC. [Online]. Available: https://www.ipcc.ch/about/history/ . [Accessed 6 September 2021].
[4] Anon,. “IPCC Sixth Assessment Report,” Wikipedia, September 4, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Sixth_Assessment_Report# [Accessed 6 September 2021].
[5] IPCC, Box SPM.1: Core Concepts Central to this Special Report,” in 2018: Global Warming of 1.5°C.An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. In Press.
[6] M. McGrath, “Climate change: IPCC report is a ‘code red’ for humanity,” BBC News, August 9, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-58130705 [Accessed 20 September 2021].
[7] P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, et al., “IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate,” Change Cambridge University Press. In Press, 2021.
[8] P. M. S. Monteiro et al., “Chapter 5 of IPCC: Global Carbon and other Biogeochemical Cycles and Feedbacks,” The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, published August 9, 2021
[9] P. W. Thorne et al., “Chapter 2: Changing State of the Climate System,” The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, published August 9, 2021.
[10] N. Dragicevic, “Polar bears may adapt to an ice-free Arctic, but they're not safe from climate change, says scientist,” CBC, February 23, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.cbc.ca/documentaries/the-nature-of-things/polar-bears-may-adapt-to-an-ice-free-arctic-but-they-re-not-safe-from-climate-change-says-scientist-1.5924442.
