Exploring IPCC Report II - Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

The research, assessment, and analysis for the second report in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report series, was undertaken by 270 authors from 67 countries. Over 34,000 scientific papers were cited in contributing to the preparation and submission of the report [1]. This comprehensive contribution stands as a testament to the global dedication and collaboration that underpins our understanding of climate change.

The first report gave a comprehensive insight into how human activities have triggered climate change, answering questions like why the days in summer are so long and why weather events like storms have become so severe [2]. The second report gives a detailed summary of the damage caused by climate change and discusses the need to mitigate and adapt to the changing environment. It also casts light on the most vulnerable parts of our ecosystem like the coral reefs, forests, and polar regions. Overall, the second report further highlights and assesses climatic goals such as limiting global warming to 1.5⁰C and saving the earth’s finite resources.

Key Discussions In The Report

The discussion in the second report centers around the complex interactions between climate change and the risks for both nature and people; now and in the future. The report breaks down various parts of the ecosystem like the coastal and terrestrial ecosystems and emphasizes the importance of ecosystem adaptation to the changing climate. It answers questions on how entire ecosystems and the species in it would respond to climate change, highlighting the implications for nature and people. It highlights how climate change affects our life-sustaining resources such as; water, food, livestock, and fisheries. It also addresses the challenges faced by people living in urban and rural areas, noting that developing key infrastructures and living in harmony with nature can support and strengthen vulnerable communities around the globe.

The Important Findings

The findings in the report uncover about 127 key risks covering a wide range of sectors like health, economy, infrastructure, agriculture, and other parts of our ecosystems [3].

The report highlights climate impacts at global and regional scales, indicating that our future climate depends on what we do now, how we live our lives, and how we can safeguard nature and people. Currently, it is estimated that around 85% of the human population is vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change [4]. Although all countries are affected, as we saw destructive impacts in the U.S, Canada [5], and Germany [6] last year, the report streamlines global hotspots of climate change impacts to include Africa, Southern Asia, small islands, developing states, central and southern America, and the Arctic [5, 6]. It also indicated that the vulnerability of these hotspots is heightened by population growth, urbanization, and unsustainable development practices.

Meanwhile, the report also gives an analysis of a series of events and how the building blocks of the ecosystem; which are the fundamental components and processes that make up and sustain the ecosystem, affect each other like a cause and effect. An impact such as an increase in atmospheric temperature and drought will cause an increase in heat stress among farmworkers, which would reduce the productivity of the farmer, which in turn would reduce crop yield, and increase food price [7]. This price increase would reduce household income and purchasing power on a local scale which in the long run has a global effect.

Several overlapping risks of climate change are also highlighted in this report such as limited access to water, poor sanitation and health services, climate-sensitive illness, and high levels of poverty. Therefore, it can be said that the report is not written to showcase the gloom and doom, it however does a reality check of where we are and what we might possibly face in the future.

What Happens If We Have A Small Increase In Global Temperatures?

A small increase in warming will lead to the extinction of some species of tropical coral reefs, causing biodiversity loss. In fact, with global warming of 1.5⁰C, there would be a 70-90 percent decline in coral reefs and virtually all coral reefs would be lost at 2⁰C. [8] There will be also a loss of ecosystems which will put at risk: pollination, coastal protection, tourism, food source, health, water filtration, clean air, and climate regulation. [9] The exposure to heat waves will increase with global warming, and at 2⁰C, regions relying on snowmelt could experience a 20% decline in water for agriculture. [7] This means that food security will be undermined which could induce an outbreak of famine. About a billion people in low-lying cities, by the sea, and on small islands are at risk from sea-level rise as we approach the midcentury. The key takeaway from these warnings is the need to adapt faster to climate change and engage in measures to reduce global warming.

The report emphasizes that adaptation will help to lower risks and reduce vulnerability. It explains that the negative trend in weather extremes and sea-level rise will continue in the next decade [10]. Therefore, there is a great need to prepare measures that would aid our adaptation to climate change. One key measure suggested is to invest in early warning services, pointing out that Africa and some other countries have severe gaps in weather and climate forecasting services. The inability to give out an accurate warning as we approach mid-century would result in higher human and economic loss.

Preparing To Adapt

On preparing to adapt to climate change, the report highlights some key areas of focus, this includes; strengthening the health sector, agroforestry, and agriculture (promoting irrigation and rainwater-saving technologies). Policy measures were also highlighted to accelerate the adaptation process; these measures include; political commitment at all levels of government institutional frameworks, making clear goals, priorities, and responsibilities, and also enhancing knowledge of the impacts and risks of climate change [11].

The report also tagged the fact that a strategy discussed today which seems to be an optimal adaptation strategy, might not be so in the future. This means there is a continuous need for monitoring and evaluation of strategies and their impacts in various sectors. This would allow policymakers to track and decide if an adaptive measure is still optimal or not.

The wider benefits of adaptation were pointed out, as well as their interconnection with various Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). They are evident in promoting no poverty, good health and well-being, reduced inequalities, and the conservation of life below water and life on land. Reliable energy, clean water, and food security contribute to SDG 1. Clean air, renewable energy, and sustainable transport support SDG 3. Policies promoting youth access to land, funding, and knowledge in agriculture and employment address SDG 10. Finally, reduced inequality and connected habitats benefit vulnerable species and align with SDG 14 and SDG 15.

Can Adaptation Go Wrong?

As much as adaptation to the changing climate must be prioritized, there is also the possibility of maladaptation. Maladaptation is solving a challenge and unintentionally creating another. [12] A strategy created to meet the shortage of food supply which degrades the environment is not a good solution. The long-term effects of every strategy in place must be critically analyzed as many of these short-term solutions have made things worse. A specific example pointed out is building coastal defenses or dams as a way to solve the challenge of rising sea levels. According to the IPCC report, these are practices of maladaptation and are unsustainable [7].

The report also clearly explains that there are limits beyond which species can adapt to increasing temperature. Hence why keeping to the 1.5⁰C limit is so important and strongly asserted. It is also important to note that to have a glimpse of the 1.5⁰C limit, we must transition out of unsustainable energy sources to green sources [13]. The idea of emitting greenhouse gasses and sequestering them is unacceptable and should be discouraged. For global actions to successfully work, we have to limit emissions in every way possible.

The importance of using diverse and local knowledge was emphasized, but more importantly, it clarifies the need for everyone to work together to achieve the 1.5⁰C limit. This includes behavioral changes that will drive policies [7].

The Final Message

Soft limits to adaptation refer to the current boundaries or thresholds beyond which our ability to adapt effectively to climate change impacts becomes increasingly challenging. These limits are already reached, therefore there is a need to invest more in adaptation.

The report shows that we’ve partially lost the battle, now we must do all we can to prevent “the last straw that breaks the camel’s back” by taking climate change very seriously. The consequences will get worse in the coming years even as we mitigate the emissions of greenhouse gases, but crossing beyond the limit of 1.5⁰C would undoubtedly cause irreversible consequences. We still expect the sea level to rise for at least a century, hence it is better we prepare to adapt now.

I agree with the sentiment expressed by Dr. Hans-Otto Pörtner, Co-Chair of the IPCC Working Group II (WG II), that the scientific evidence leaves no doubt that climate change poses a significant threat to both human well-being and the health of our planet. It is crucial to recognize that there is a limited time frame within which we can take effective global action. Delaying or failing to act collectively would mean missing the opportunity to secure a livable future for ourselves and future generations [14].

References

[1] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "IPCC Sixth Assessment Report Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability," February 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/about/authors/. [Accessed 10 April 2022].

[2] K. Venkatesan, "Exploring the IPCC Report — Climate Change and the SDGs," November 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.youthstem2030.org/youth-stem-matters/read/exploring-the-ipcc-report-climate-change-and-the-sdgs. [Accessed 9 April 2022].

[3] IPCC Working Group II, "Summary for Policymakers Headline Statements," 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_HeadlineStatements.pdf. [Accessed 12 April 2022].

[4] M. Callaghan, C.-F. Schleussner, S. Nath, Q. Lejeune, T. R. Knutson, M. Reichstein, G. Hansen, E. Theokritoff, M. Andrijevic, R. J. Brecha, M. Hegarty, C. Jones, K. Lee, A. Lucas and N. v. Maan, "Machine-learning-based evidence and attribution mapping of 100,000 climate impact studies," August 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01168-6. [Accessed 12 April 2022].

[5] Government of Canada. "The Impacts of a Changing Climate: Canada’s Top Ten Weather Stories of 2021," December 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2021/12/the-impacts-of-a-changing-climate-canadas-top-ten-weather-stories-of-2021.html. [Accessed 12 April 2022].

[6] J. Wilks, "What was the role of climate change in Germany's fatal floods," October 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.euronews.com/green/2021/10/18/what-was-the-role-of-climate-change-in-germany-s-fatal-floods. [Accessed 12 April 2022].

[7] IPCC, "Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability," February 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/about/how-to-cite-this-report/. [Accessed 11 April 2022].

[8] A. M. Dixon, P. M. Forster, S. F. Heron, and A. M. K. Stoner, "Future loss of local-scale thermal refugia in coral reef ecosystems," Plos Climate, vol. 1, no. 2, 2022. Available: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000004.

[9] IPCC, "Summary for Policymakers of IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C approved by governments," October 2018. [Online]. Available: https://www.ipcc.ch/2018/10/08/summary-for-policymakers-of-ipcc-special-report-on-global-warming-of-1-5c-approved-by-governments/. [Accessed 13 April 2022].

[10] IPCC, "Summary for Policymakers," 2018. [Online]. Available: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf.

[11] IPCC, "Mitigation of Climate Change," 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_FullReport.pdf. [Accessed Day, Month, Year].

[12] France24, "'Maladaptation': how not to cope with climate change," March 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220305-maladaptation-how-not-to-cope-with-climate-change. [Accessed 12 April 2022].

[13] P. Brad and Z. Raymond, "Climate Change Is Harming the Planet Faster Than We Can Adapt, U.N. Warns," February 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/climate/climate-change-ipcc-report.html. [Accessed 13 April 2022].

[14] UN News, "IPCC adaptation report ‘a damning indictment of failed global leadership on climate," February 2022. [Online]. Available: https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/02/1112852. [Accessed 12 April 2022].